ObjectiveTo establish a time series model and to analyze the effect of applying the model to predict the daily cumulative cases of the COVID-19 epidemic in the early stage, so as to provide a reference for better COVID-19 prevention and control. MethodsThe time series method was used to establish a time series model for daily cumulative cases of COVID-19. By means of the model, the daily cumulative cases of the disease were predicted in the short-term. According to the comparison between the predicted value of the daily cumulative cases from the model and actual value, the median absolute deviation was analyzed to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the model. ResultsThe prediction results of the time series model for the daily cumulative cases in Hubei and non-Hubei areas were basically consistent with the actual development trend. The median absolute deviation in Hubei and non-Hubei areas was 6.40% and 2.23%, respectively. The prediction efficiency of the daily cumulative cases in non-Hubei areas was superior to that in Hubei areas. ConclusionThe effect of using the time series model to predict daily cumulative cases of COVID-19 epidemic in the early stage is relatively good, but it cannot truly reflect the development and change of the disease. The impact of other factors for the prediction results must be considered in reality.

无