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基于Logistic回归分析构建联合检测因子模型诊断原发性肝癌的价值分析▲
Value analysis of establishing combined detection factor model in the diagnosis of primary liver cancer based on logistic regression analysis

内科 202116卷05期 页码:602-607

作者机构:河南大学第一附属医院检验科,开封市475001

基金信息:▲基金项目:河南省医学科技攻关计划联合共建项目(LHGJ20190529)

DOI:DOI:10.16121/j.cnki.cn45-1347/r.2021.05.11

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目的基于Logistic回归分析构建诊断乙肝肝硬化患者并发原发性肝癌的联合检测因子模型,绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)对模型的应用价值进行分析。方法选取2017年11月至2020年3月我院收治的乙肝肝硬化患者150例,根据是否并发原发性肝癌分为肝癌组(n=57)和非肝癌组(n=93)。收集两组患者的临床资料,基于Logistic回归分析构建乙肝肝硬化患者并发原发性肝癌的联合检测因子模型,绘制ROC曲线对模型的应用价值进行分析。结果肝癌组和非肝癌组患者的性别、年龄,合并高血压、高脂血症情况以及HBeAg阳性率比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05);肝癌组患者合并糖尿病、非酒精性脂肪肝情况,肝癌家族史、烟草依赖及酒精依赖情况、抗病毒治疗情况、HBV-DNA阳性率以及血清铁蛋白、甲胎蛋白、高尔基体糖蛋白73、腺苷脱氨酶、谷氨酰转肽酶、5’-核苷酸酶水平等与非肝癌组患者比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,糖尿病、肝癌家族史、血清铁蛋白、甲胎蛋白、谷氨酰转肽酶是乙肝肝硬化患者并发原发性肝癌的独立危险因素。将糖尿病、肝癌家族史、血清铁蛋白、甲胎蛋白、谷氨酰转肽酶分别作为协变量X1、X2、X3、X4、X5,得出联合检测因子模型表达式为:Logit(P)=-8.527+2.113X1+1.772X2+0.571X3+0.338X4+0.975X5。采用联合检测因子模型预测乙肝肝硬化患者并发原发性肝癌的灵敏度为80.70%、特异度为86.02%、准确率为84.00%,曲线下面积为0.859(0.677~0.953)。结论基于Logistic回归分析法构建的联合检测因子模型数据易得,诊断效能较高,有利于乙肝肝硬化并发原发性肝癌患者早期获得诊断、治疗,从而改善患者预后。
ObjectiveTo establish combined detection factor model in the diagnosis of patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis complicated with primary liver cancer based on logistic regression analysis, drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the application value of the model. MethodsA total of 150 patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis admitted to our hospital from November 2017 to March 2020 were selected, and they were divided into liver cancer group (n=57) and non-liver cancer group (n=93) according to the presence of complicated with primary liver cancer. The general clinical data of the two groups were collected. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct the combined detection factor model of patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis complicated with primary liver cancer, and the ROC curve was drawn to analyze the application value of the model. ResultsThere were no statistically significant differences in gender, age, complicated with hypertension and hyperlipidemia, and HBeAg positive rate between the liver cancer group and the non-liver cancer group (P>0.05). There were statistically significant differences in the state of complicated with diabetes and non-alcoholic fatty liver, and family history of liver cancer, conditions of tobacco dependence, alcohol dependence, antiviral treatment, HBV-DNA positive rate, as well as serum ferritin, alpha-fetoprotein, Golgi glycoprotein 73, adenosine deaminase, glutamyl transpeptidase, 5′-nucleotidase levels, etc., between the liver cancer group and non-liver cancer group (P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that diabetes, family history of liver cancer, serum ferritin, alpha-fetoprotein, and glutamyl transpeptidase were independent risk factors for patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis complicated with primary liver cancer. Diabetes, family history of liver cancer, serum ferritin, alpha-fetoprotein, and glutamyl transpeptidase were used as covariates X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, and the combined detection factor model expression interpreted as: Logit(P)=-8.527+2.113X1+1.772X2+0.571X3+0.338X4+0.975X5. The combined detection factor model was used to predict the sensitivity (80.70%), specificity (86.02%), accuracy (84.00%), and the area under the curve (0.859, in range of 0.677 to 0.953) of hepatitis B cirrhosis patients complicated with primary liver cancer. ConclusionThe data of the combined detection factor model established based on logistic regression analysis is easily accessible and the diagnostic efficiency is high. It can enable the patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis complicated with primary liver cancer to obtain early diagnosis and treatment, so as to improve the prognosis of the patients.

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